Scientific café: Climate change

23 August 2005, Helsinki

Andy Kerr

150 years ago: history of climate change (recordings)
1896: Svante Arrhenius — greenhouse effect, human activity affecting the climate
1970s: ice age predictions
now: global warming
IPCC 1990: scientists and policy makers
Kyoto and Marakech agreements
inactivity, lack of reactions

uncertainty
consequences and propagations
reaction of human societies

timing and inertia
natural adaptation to climate
capacity and speed to adapt, resilience
poorest more vulnerable
How to improve? How much to invest? Break-even?
Reduce the development, and thus the capacity to adapt?
Fair tradeoffs...
balance short term costs with long term costs

Lasse Makkonen

Temperature of the Earth affects the amount of radiation
Balance between reception and emission: 19 C (?)
The wavelength of radiations depends on temperature
Atmosphere: reflection and absorption
Increase the absorption coefficient, result: from 14 C to 19 C
Local temperatures: model circulation and transfers
Optimize costs: based on notions about the extremes

Discussion

Gulf stream:

Melting of Greenland ices and outcome of Siberia rivers.
Balance of water salinity
Low probability - huge impact

100000 years between ice ages
10000 years: another period in the precession movement of the Earth around the Sun
Pleocene similar to now 2 M years ago

Greenhouse effect,
Conferences ToC

Marc Girod

Last modified: Fri Oct 14 17:05:18 EEST 2005